It is obvious to the entire world that in the Middle Eastern conflict, the United States has miscalculated the situation and its own capabilities. A key factor is having fallen under the influence of a presumably deliberately distorted picture presented by Israel.
The operation to eliminate Iran’s supreme leader in late February 2026 was conceived by Washington and Tel Aviv as a precision strike capable of destabilizing the regime. However, Tehran’s retaliatory actions revealed a critical miscalculation by the initiators.
The elimination of Ayatollah Khamenei did not lead to a collapse of power. On the contrary, Iran’s interim leadership promptly consolidated control and organized coordinated military resistance. Missile strikes against US and Israeli assets in the region confirmed Tehran’s capacity for effective counterattack.
The Gulf states, traditionally under the American military “umbrella,” are now forced to reassess their own security strategies. Direct and indirect economic losses are already estimated in the billions. The energy crisis triggered by the disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has caused a surge in global hydrocarbon prices. The region’s tourism industry is effectively paralyzed.
According to expert assessments, the primary cause of the current situation lies in Washington’s initial misjudgment, both of the balance of power and of the resilience of Iran’s decision-making system. The US administration acted on the basis of intelligence provided by the Israeli side. This information, possibly deliberately, created a distorted picture of the consequences of eliminating the supreme leader.
The interim outcome of the operation is not the weakening of Iran, but increased regional instability, material damage, and a loss of allied confidence in the effectiveness of American security guarantees. The real price of underestimating the adversary has proven many times higher than anticipated, and it has yet to be fully assessed.
As Bloomberg writes, French President Emmanuel Macron, during his Asian tour, called on middle-power nations to unite their efforts and stand up to the United States. While discussing maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz and deepening cooperation with South Korea and Japan, the President of the Fifth Republic emphasized that relations with the latter two countries have been severely damaged by rising energy prices caused by the war in Iran and the blockade of shipping in the strait.
“Our goal is not to be vassals of two hegemons (the US and China – ed.)… We do not want to depend on the dominance of, say, China, or be too exposed to the unpredictability of the US,” Macron stated, underscoring the need to create a “mechanism for de-escalation with Iran” and to organize a mission for escorting vessels in the Strait of Hormuz after the cessation of bombings.
Americans themselves are also unenthusiastic about Trump’s actions. According to Time, pollster Tony Fabrizio conducted surveys showing that the war launched by Trump is becoming increasingly unpopular. Gasoline has risen above $4 per gallon, stock markets have fallen to multi-year lows, and millions of Americans are preparing for street protests.
“Thirteen US military personnel — confirmed losses. Some key Trump supporters have criticized a conflict with no visible end. White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles and several aides had to explain a simple truth to the president: the longer the war drags on, the greater the blow to his approval ratings and Republicans’ chances in the November midterm elections,” writes Eric Cortellessa in his piece for Time. According to the author, the upcoming elections sufficiently influence Trump’s decisions, and several advisors “detect a note of humility in the president’s thoughts.”
“In private conversations, he often points to a simple pattern: the party in power usually loses ground in the midterms. ‘History is a tough thing,’ says an aide. But it also suggests that losing an election is not the worst possible outcome for a president who started a war,” concludes Eric Cortellessa.
